This is the first leg of a Champions League round of 16 clash that brings together two very different sides at very different points in their seasons. Atalanta welcome Bayern Munich to Bergamo in what should be one of the more entertaining ties of this stage of the competition. Both teams have already played Borussia Dortmund this season, and both beat them in five-goal thrillers. That, however, is probably where the comparisons end.
Match Information
Atalanta BC: The Comeback Kings
Atalanta's route to the last 16 was nothing short of dramatic.
They went into the second leg of their playoff tie against Borussia Dortmund
two goals down, with most people writing them off. By the hour mark of a
breathless second leg in Bergamo, they had wiped out that deficit and the tie
was level at 3-3 on aggregate. Then, deep into stoppage time, a penalty was
awarded and Lazar Samardzic stepped up and buried it. Job done.
That kind of resilience has become something of a trademark.
Atalanta have built a genuine reputation in European football over recent
years, and their 2024 Europa League title win proved they can go all the way in
a major competition. They are Italy's sole remaining representative in this
season's Champions League, and they are not just here to make up the numbers.
That said, the numbers do paint a slightly concerning picture.
Aside from a convincing 4-1 home win last month, Atalanta have lost six of
their last seven knockout-stage fixtures in European competition. They have
also been conceding at an average of two goals per game across nine knockout
matches. In a two-legged tie against Bayern Munich, that kind of defensive
exposure is going to be tested.
Their domestic form has also wobbled. Manager Raffaele
Palladino was named Serie A's coach of the month for February, but since then
his side have collected just one point from two league games and drew 2-2 with
Lazio in the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final. A defeat to ten-man
Sassuolo ended any realistic hope of a top-four league finish. Then at the
weekend, they fell two goals behind at home to mid-table Udinese before
Gianluca Scamacca came off the bench to score twice in three minutes and rescue
a draw. Good in front of goal, leaky at the back.
Bayern Munich: The Machine Keeps Rolling
Bayern Munich arrive in Bergamo in the kind of form that makes
you feel a little sorry for whoever they face next. Across all competitions
this season, they have recorded 35 wins from 40 matches, with just two defeats.
In the Champions League, the only team to beat them has been Arsenal. Defending
champions Paris Saint-Germain and Club World Cup winners Chelsea have both been
knocked aside in the league phase, and Bayern won seven of their eight games in
that stage of the competition.
History also points firmly in their direction. In the round of
16, Bayern have won ten and lost just one of their last twelve games at this
stage. They also carry the highest goals-per-game rate of any side in the
Champions League knockout rounds. That is not just a historical trend either.
This season they have been free-scoring at a remarkable rate, with 92
Bundesliga goals already banked. They are nine goals away from breaking the
all-time Bundesliga seasonal scoring record, and they still have nine games
left in the league.
Vincent Kompany's men have won their last six matches across
all competitions and are firmly on course for the Bundesliga title. They have
also progressed to the DFB-Pokal semi-finals, and a treble is not out of the
question. Their most recent outing, a 4-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach,
came with seven changes to the side that had beaten Dortmund days earlier.
Goals from Luis Diaz, Jamal Musiala, Konrad Laimer and Nicolas Jackson
suggested the squad depth is not a concern.
Recent Form
|
Atalanta (Champions League) |
W W
L L L W |
|
Atalanta (All Competitions) |
L W
W L D D |
|
Bayern (Champions League) |
W W
L W W W |
|
Bayern (All Competitions) |
W W
W W W W |
Team News
Atalanta will be boosted by the possible return of Ederson,
and captain Marten De Roon should start after getting a breather against
Udinese at the weekend. There are still some significant absences, though.
Defender Giorgio Scalvini is suspended by UEFA, attacking midfielder Giacomo
Raspadori has only just returned to training, and key playmaker Charles De
Ketelaere remains sidelined with a knee injury.
De Ketelaere's absence is worth dwelling on. He registered six
goal involvements and created 20 chances in the league phase alone. Since his
first Champions League appearance for the club, Atalanta have scored an extra
0.9 goals per game from open play when he has been in the starting XI. His
absence leaves a real creative gap. Up front, Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic will
compete for the central striking role. Scamacca's brace at the weekend was
timely, and he has scored in each of his last three Champions League home
matches.
Bayern's main concern is Harry Kane, who missed Friday's win
with a minor calf problem. Kompany suggested his return should be quick, and
the England striker could well be fit enough to start. Kane's record of being
directly involved in 33 goals from 33 Champions League appearances for the club
is the best of any player across Europe since the start of the 2023-24
campaign. He will be badly wanted here. There is also a question mark over
captain Manuel Neuer, who had to be replaced mid-game by Jonas Urbig against
Gladbach. Defenders Hiroki Ito and Alphonso Davies remain unavailable.
Expected Starting Lineups
|
Atalanta BC |
Carnesecchi; Kossounou,
Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, De Roon, Pasalic, Bernasconi; Samardzic,
Zalewski; Scamacca |
|
Bayern Munich |
Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano,
Tah, Laimer; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Diaz; Kane |
Key Battles to Watch
Samardzic vs Kimmich: Samardzic has shown he can deliver in
big moments, not least with that penalty against Dortmund. But controlling the
midfield against Kimmich and Pavlovic is a different challenge altogether. If
Atalanta can get Samardzic on the ball in tight spaces, they have a chance. If
Bayern dominate the middle, it could be a long evening.
Scamacca vs Bayern's backline: The striker is in form and has
a habit of delivering in European home matches. Upamecano and Tah are solid,
but Scamacca's physicality and movement could cause problems. He needs service,
though, and without De Ketelaere creating from deep, that supply chain may be
limited.
Musiala vs Atalanta's wide defenders: Bayern's most dangerous
player in transition, Musiala has the pace and technique to take on defenders
one-on-one. Atalanta's fullbacks will be very busy.
Final Verdict
Atalanta have a real European pedigree and the Gewiss Stadium
can be a hostile place on big nights. Their home crowd will lift them, and they
have shown they can score against anyone. But the defensive numbers do not lie.
They have been leaking goals, their best creative player is injured, and they
are coming into this match off the back of some shaky domestic results.
Bayern are simply playing at another level right now. Their
squad depth, their firepower across the pitch, and their consistent record in
the round of 16 all point toward them taking control of this tie from the first
leg. A narrow home win for Atalanta is not impossible, but the more likely
outcome is Bayern scoring at least twice and heading into the second leg at the
Allianz Arena with a comfortable advantage.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-2 Bayern Munich
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